Republican Control of Senate May be Short-Lived

The GOP had a wonderful night last night largely because the Senate map this year was in their favor.

Of the seven seats the party picked up, five of them were in states won by Mitt Romney in the last Presidential Election. The fact that they also won Senate races in Colorado and Iowa, two states won by President Obama in 2012, also dealt a major blow to Democrats.

But the problem the Democrats had this year will be the same problem the GOP will have in 2016.

In that election, seven Republican Senators who were elected in 2010-Mark Kirk of Illinois, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Marco Rubio of Florida, and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire-will be running for re-election in states that President Obama carried in the last presidential election, with an electorate that will be much less favorable to them than this year.

With Angus King’s announcement today that he is still going to caucus with the Democrats, the party of President Obama would have 46 seats if Begich concedes in Alaska and Mary Landrieu loses the December 6 runoff in Louisiana. That would mean Democrats would need to win five of those seven seats held by Republicans where Obama won. They could also potentially win a Senate race in North Carolina, especially with a larger youth and minority turnout in presidential years.

Even if Democrats don’t succeed in winning back the Senate in two years, the Senate landscape next time around may be good for the country, since those seven senators might be willing to compromise on certain issues such as immigration reform in order to have another six years on capitol hill.