The GOP had a wonderful night last night largely because the
Senate map this year was in their favor.
Of the seven seats the party picked up, five of them were in
states won by Mitt Romney in the last Presidential Election. The fact that they
also won Senate races in Colorado and Iowa, two states won by President Obama
in 2012, also dealt a major blow to Democrats.
But the problem the Democrats had this year will be the same
problem the GOP will have in 2016.
In that election, seven Republican Senators who were elected
in 2010-Mark Kirk of Illinois, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Chuck Grassley of
Iowa, Rob Portman of Ohio, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Marco Rubio of Florida,
and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire-will be running for re-election in states
that President Obama carried in the last presidential election, with an
electorate that will be much less favorable to them than this year.
With Angus King’s announcement today that he is still going
to caucus with the Democrats, the party of President Obama would have 46 seats
if Begich concedes in Alaska and Mary Landrieu loses the December 6 runoff in
Louisiana. That would mean Democrats would need to win five of those seven
seats held by Republicans where Obama won. They could also potentially win a
Senate race in North Carolina, especially with a larger youth and minority
turnout in presidential years.
Even if Democrats don’t succeed in winning back the Senate
in two years, the Senate landscape next time around may be good for the
country, since those seven senators might be willing to compromise on certain
issues such as immigration reform in order to have another six years on capitol
hill.
