Cleveland and Dallas were announced Wednesday as the two finalists to host the 2016 GOP Convention, and I have no doubt which one of them will come out on top.
It has been said many times but it is worth repeating again: no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. The Buckeye State may be even more important than ever to the GOP since it was the state that gave America a second term of President Obama. With it's 18 electoral votes, it is the second largest battleground state prize after Florida, and you can bet that winning it will be a top priority for whoever wins the GOP Presidential nomination.
The last time Cleveland hosted a GOP convention was in 1936 when it nominated Alf Landon to run against FDR, and the last time Dallas was the host city was in 1984, when it nominated President Reagan for re-election. Although Texas is much larger than Ohio with 38 electoral votes, it is a reliably Republican state. Having a Republican Convention in Dallas would be like having a Democratic Convention in San Francisco-holding a convention in a state the party can take for granted and would in no way help in winning the White House.
But I believe there are other reasons why the GOP will avoid having their next national gathering in Dallas. Part of it is due to the last Republican President, who by sheer coincidence lives in and has his presidential library in Dallas. Despite former President George W. Bush's approval numbers having increased significantly since he left office, having the convention in his home city might end up reminding voters about his policies and why they disliked his administration in the first place. If the convention was in Dallas, it is a pretty sure thing that Dubya would have to have a speaking slot, since it would be awkward to hold the gathering in his own backyard and not invite him. But if it was in Cleveland, then it would be a lot easier for the party to disinvite him.
But the more significant danger to the GOP in holding their convention in Dallas is that it would run the risk of giving Texas Senator and Tea Party champion Ted Cruz a starring role at the convention. At a time when mainstream Republicans are fighting off against the Tea Party, having the convention in the home state of one of the Tea Party's most recognizable faces is not on their wish list. Giving Cruz a starring role could also run the risk of reminding voters about the government shutdown, something the party would like everyone to forget.
The only way I can see Dallas beating Cleveland in hosting their convention would be if Cleveland was unable to raise the necessary funds in hosting the event. Dallas has a variety of high-net worth GOP donors that would make raising money for the gathering a piece of cake, which has even more significance after Congress passed legislation stripping away public financing of political conventions. But even if that were the case, I think it would be more likely that the party would be willing to go into debt in order to win Ohio-and the White House-once again.
It has been said many times but it is worth repeating again: no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. The Buckeye State may be even more important than ever to the GOP since it was the state that gave America a second term of President Obama. With it's 18 electoral votes, it is the second largest battleground state prize after Florida, and you can bet that winning it will be a top priority for whoever wins the GOP Presidential nomination.
The last time Cleveland hosted a GOP convention was in 1936 when it nominated Alf Landon to run against FDR, and the last time Dallas was the host city was in 1984, when it nominated President Reagan for re-election. Although Texas is much larger than Ohio with 38 electoral votes, it is a reliably Republican state. Having a Republican Convention in Dallas would be like having a Democratic Convention in San Francisco-holding a convention in a state the party can take for granted and would in no way help in winning the White House.
But I believe there are other reasons why the GOP will avoid having their next national gathering in Dallas. Part of it is due to the last Republican President, who by sheer coincidence lives in and has his presidential library in Dallas. Despite former President George W. Bush's approval numbers having increased significantly since he left office, having the convention in his home city might end up reminding voters about his policies and why they disliked his administration in the first place. If the convention was in Dallas, it is a pretty sure thing that Dubya would have to have a speaking slot, since it would be awkward to hold the gathering in his own backyard and not invite him. But if it was in Cleveland, then it would be a lot easier for the party to disinvite him.
But the more significant danger to the GOP in holding their convention in Dallas is that it would run the risk of giving Texas Senator and Tea Party champion Ted Cruz a starring role at the convention. At a time when mainstream Republicans are fighting off against the Tea Party, having the convention in the home state of one of the Tea Party's most recognizable faces is not on their wish list. Giving Cruz a starring role could also run the risk of reminding voters about the government shutdown, something the party would like everyone to forget.
The only way I can see Dallas beating Cleveland in hosting their convention would be if Cleveland was unable to raise the necessary funds in hosting the event. Dallas has a variety of high-net worth GOP donors that would make raising money for the gathering a piece of cake, which has even more significance after Congress passed legislation stripping away public financing of political conventions. But even if that were the case, I think it would be more likely that the party would be willing to go into debt in order to win Ohio-and the White House-once again.
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